Florida Real Estate Warning: 10 Cities to Watch in 2026
If you own, rent, or invest in Florida real estate, there are some numbers you need to know. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, net domestic migration to Florida has dropped dramatically—from 310,000 in 2022 to only 22,000 in 2025. Florida now ranks behind Alabama for domestic migration. While Alabama is a great state, this collapse is a clear signal for Florida homeowners and investors.
Some Florida homeowners, particularly in cities like Cape Coral and Punta Gorda, have lost over $100,000 in equity since the peak. Foreclosure rates are now the highest in the nation, and while Florida Realtors claim the market is stabilizing, homes in many areas are sitting unsold for over 100 days with sellers cutting prices just to get offers.
Four Forces Driving the Florida Market Decline
- Migration slowdown: From 310,000 net domestic migrants in 2022 to just 22,000 in 2025.
- High insurance costs: Florida homeowners still pay 2–3x the national average. Coastal areas are even higher, and 20% of homeowners have dropped coverage entirely.
- Inventory surge: Florida now holds over 15% of all active U.S. listings. Eight metros hit record high inventory in 2025.
- Foreclosures: Florida leads the nation, with Tampa having the worst foreclosure rate of any major metro.
The 10 Florida Cities Showing Warning Signs
1. Orlando
- Median home price: ~$380,000
- Zillow shows a 4% decline from mid-2025 peak
- Homes now sit for 78 days on average, up from 58 days the previous year
Orlando isn’t in freefall, but sellers are negotiating from a weaker position than in 2024.
2. Jacksonville
- Median sale price: ~$282,000, down 4.4% year-over-year
- Homes take 85 days to sell
- Property taxes surged nearly 60% since 2019
Combined with high insurance, this is pushing families out. Foreclosures are high, and Realtor.com forecasts another 1.4–4% decline through 2026.
3. Ocala
- Homes that sold in 37 days a year ago now sit for 73 days
- Inventory surged 66% year-over-year
- Redfin shows 4% price increase, Zillow shows slight declines
While Ocala is growing, gains are localized, and many neighborhoods are softening.
4. Port St. Lucie
- Median home price: ~$400,000
- Homes sitting over 86 days
- Record-high inventory and expected new listings
Insurance, taxes, and commute costs are narrowing the affordability gap.
5. Lakeland
- Prices around $308–$320,000
- Highest foreclosure rate among midsize metros in 2024
- Investor activity has softened rental demand and compressed flipping margins
Downward movement is likely despite flat headline prices.
6. Fort Myers
- Median home price: ~$385,000
- Downtown prices dropped 14% from peak
- Insurance premiums exceed $8,600/year
Builders continue supplying new homes, pressuring resale prices further.
7. Northport–Sarasota
- Zillow reports a 9.3% decline year-over-year
- Homes sit for over 100 days
- Condo market in Sarasota is in distress with double-digit drops and 8+ months supply
Single-family homes around $457,000, down 6.6% YoY. Realtor.com forecasts another 8.9% decline through 2026.
8. Miami
- Median home prices dropped over 10% YoY
- Homes sit for 110 days; condos face 14 months of inventory
- Post-Surfside regulations have increased HOA fees and inspection costs
Only 14% of renter households can afford to buy, making Miami unaffordable for most.
9. Tampa
- Worst foreclosure rate of any major U.S. metro
- One in 1,373 homes had a foreclosure filing in Oct 2025
- Property taxes surged 57% since 2019
Zillow shows a 6% YoY decline. Two direct hurricanes hit in 2024, causing price drops up to 30%. Realtor.com forecasts a further 3.6% decline.
10. Punta Gorda
- Median home prices dropped 25.3% from July 2022 peak
- Homes sit for 106 days
- Insurance premiums exceed $10,000/year
- Foreclosure filings in Charlotte County increased 400% since early 2024
Migration has collapsed 93%, making recovery challenging.
Final Takeaways
- Factor in insurance, taxes, and current equity when evaluating property.
- Buying now requires patience and careful analysis—not emotion.
- Markets like Punta Gorda warn that what happens in one city can eventually spread elsewhere.
If you own property in any of these markets, watch trends carefully. For investors, this is a time to be precise and data-driven. Stay informed to make smart decisions in Florida’s real estate market.